Abstract:

Despite its recognised critical mineral status in various renewable energy applications, nickel (Ni) has remained the most underperforming base metal to-date. This underperformance is largely attributed to a persistent surplus in supply that continues to outpace demand. Over the past decade, there has been a remarkable growth in nickel laterite processing, particularly in Indonesia. This period has witnessed the emergence of large-scale intermediate processing, including vertically integrated facilities producing battery chemicals and electrolytic nickel, signalling the onset of a significant technological era in nickel processing. Historically, Ni processing has been both complex and costly. However, the market has not been willing to pay a premium for higher-quality processing. This has driven innovation in three key areas: scale, speed, and strategy, which become the new face of nickel processing. Increasing the scale of production, accelerating the speed of project execution, and employing strategic contracting for both processing inputs and outputs have collectively disrupted the global Ni industry in recent years. Indonesia’s abundant high-grade laterite deposits, relatively low-cost power and labour, and abundant coal resources have played a crucial role in enabling cost-competitive projects and supporting low-cost production. As a result, several greenfield projects outside Indonesia have become unviable, and many ageing and/or high-cost existing Ni operations have either closed or shifted into survival mode. Although the momentum of Indonesian-led Ni expansion appears unstoppable, there are clear and emerging threats that could alter its trajectory. Declining ore grades pose a significant challenge, as does the need to balance rapid development with managing its environmental and social impacts. This includes addressing the increasing volume of tailings, improving safety, and responding to calls for greater social value from mining operations. Furthermore, broader economic factors such as geopolitical issues and volatility in key commodity prices (notably sulfur and sulfuric acid) introduce additional uncertainty to the industry’s future. This paper will provide an overview of the critical innovations shaping recent developments in Ni processing, along with insights into the high-level project costs associated with these changes. It will also examine the potential impacts of the emerging threats described above and explore future technologies that may influence the sector. The aim is to offer technical guidance and benchmark data that can assist both future greenfield Ni projects and existing operations as they navigate this evolving and competitive landscape.

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Dr. Mark Steemson