Abstract
The mining industry has a long history of low shareholder returns. Between 2003 and 2016, the average Canadian mining company generated an annual return of -8%, well below the +7% return of the TSX Composite Index. An analysis of over 100 publicly traded Canadian mining firms reveals that while annual performance is largely driven by commodity price, long-term performance is controlled by mineral asset impairments. Over this period, 90% of companies declared impairments, with an average write-down of 46% of a mine’s book value. A dataset of the most significant new gold mines started in the past ten years will be examined to illustrate how better project forecasting and uncertainty management can lead to fewer impairments and higher shareholder returns.