Abstract
Risk assessment of mine production schedules and designs employs geostatistical simulations to probabilistically quantify risks associated with key performance indicators of mining assets. This approach contrasts with traditional sensitivity analysis, which does not account for geological uncertainty and variability.
This case study at an operating multi-metal open-pit mine is divided into two parts. The first part assesses the risks of existing deterministic pit limits and production schedules, revealing a high probability of overestimating ore tonnages and concentrates. The second part demonstrates that stochastic optimization produces long-term production schedules with higher NPV and increased production of various concentrates, while reducing risks associated with multiple production targets. The study highlights the benefits of integrating geological uncertainty and variability into the mine planning process through stochastic mine planning optimization and risk management.